Adaptation of the Western
Baltic Coastal Fishery to
Climate Change
WORK PACKAGES
WP 1 - Risk analysis
AP 1.1
AP 1.2
AP 1.3
AP 1.4
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptability
Vulnerability
Lead:
Contribution:
TI-OF
UHH, GEOMAR, CAU
The biological diversity of the fish community and its spatial distribution are largely determined by abiotic environmental factors such as temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. Each species of fish has its own specific requirements and preferences (e.g. for successful reproduction). If the prevailing environmental factors increasingly deviate from this (e.g. due to climatic changes), this can influence the distribution of individual species in certain regions or even lead to a decline in fish populations. Ultimately, this can endanger the stability of the marine food web. In the western Baltic Sea, climate change leads to such unfavorable changes and thus not only threatens the balance of the marine ecosystem but also the existence of local coastal fisheries, which are largely dependent on the regionally occurring fish stocks.
The aim in work package 1 (WP 1) is therefore to assess the threat posed to fisheries in the western Baltic Sea with regard to future climate-related environmental changes. First of all, distribution areas and regional hotspots of important fish species are identified. In order to be able to estimate the effects on the ecosystem, a forecast is made of the extent to which the environmental factors will change in the identified areas. Furthermore, the susceptibility of the fish community to the forecast climate-related future scenarios is examined in order to determine the sensitivity of these to the changed environmental conditions. After bringing together the first results on the exposure and sensitivity of the fish community, the flexibility and adaptability of local inshore fisheries to future changes and potential spatial shifts in the species spectrum will be examined and assessed. The aim is to work actively with various stakeholders from local fisheries, environmental associations, administration and tourism, and to discuss the knowledge gained together.
WP 2 - Assessment of the ecosystem status
AP 2.1
AP 2.2
AP 2.3
AP 2.4
Indicator sighting
Resilience & limit values
Interactions
Ecosystem status
Lead:
Contribution:
UHH
CAU, GEOMAR, TI-OF
The focus of work package 2 (WP 2) is on the development of an indicator-based evaluation system of the ecosystem status of the western Baltic Sea. For this purpose, historical and current data are used to test suitable indicators. The aim is to draw conclusions about changes in the ecosystem, their possible causes and extent. The evaluation system is primarily intended to help identify changes over time in biological diversity, for example in the fish community and in the food web, in order to be able to better assess the current and future effects of climate change on these systems. The information and indicators collected in WP 1 provide the basis for this. First of all, in task 2.1, suitable candidate indicators (e.g. important fish species, trophic and biodiversity indices) are selected or developed based on predefined criteria. In task 2.2, these selected indicators are tested for their sensitivity, robustness and possible threshold values in their relationships to anthropogenic load variables. In addition, in task 2.3, the interactions between several indicators and loads are assessed in order to take additive, synergistic and antagonistic effects into account. The resulting set of indicators finally enables an assessment of changes in the state of the ecosystem, such as potentially irreversible regime shifts. The state of the ecosystem of the western Baltic Sea determined in this way and its changes are compiled, evaluated and graphically presented in task 2.4.
WP 3 - Assessment of management strategies
AP 3.1
WP 3.2
AP 3.3
AP 3.4
Model development & coupling
Single and multi-species models
Food web model
Management strategies
Lead:
Contribution:
iDiv
GEOMAR, TI-OF, UHH
The aim of WP3 is to develop robust management strategies based on various models, including coupled ecological-economic fisheries models and a food web model (Ecopath with Ecosim). In addition to an age-structured model for the herring (based on the example of an existing model for cod), both species are also to be integrated into a multi-species model. New, climate-sensitive relationships for stock recruitment are then built into these models. On the basis of information from WP 1 and WP 2, the "forcing functions" are also modified in the food web model. In addition, the ecological models are to be linked with existing results of climate-ocean projections on future changes in temperature, salinity, oxygen concentration and acidification (see also WP 4) and socio-economic scenarios. Furthermore, simulations are carried out using the coupled ecological-economic models for the cod and herring stocks of the western Baltic Sea with regard to economic and ecosystem target functions. Model results and balancing of conflicting goals are discussed with stakeholders (WP 5) and adjusted. In this work package, simulations of changes in the food web are carried out with the recently developed EwE model. The main aim of this is to evaluate the effects of several stressors (i.e. climate and fisheries) on the dynamics, integrity and ability to provide ecosystem services. In task 3.4, including all models, robust management strategies under climate and fishery scenarios are developed as a basis for the development of dynamic adaptation paths and narratives. The robustness of the strategies is ensured with the help of model uncertainty assessments, e.g. in fishery models by varying the recruitment models. In the EwE food web model, a Monte Carlo routine is to be used to measure the sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the input data and in the "forcing functions".
WP 4 - Narratives of adaptation to climate change
AP 4.1
AP 4.2
AP 4.3
AP 4.4
Assessment of global scenarios
Development of local scenarios
Adaptation paths
Customization narratives
Lead:
Contribution:
CAU
GEOMAR, iDiv, TI-OF, UHH
The thematic focus of work package 4 (WP 4) is on the development of local adaptation paths for fisheries to climate change, including socio-economic usage scenarios. First, global emissions and socio-economic paths will be evaluated for their applicability to the socio-ecological system of fisheries in the western Baltic Sea. In a second step, local usage and policy scenarios will be developed, integrating knowledge of user and interest groups though a participatory approach. Dynamic adaptation paths are based on the respective emission and local socio-economic scenarios generated. For this purpose, qualitative and quantitative information about the dynamics of the most important commercial fish species (including cod and herring), the food web and the socio-economic system are summarized in a visual development path. Based on the preliminary work described, so-called narratives are created for the local adaptation paths. Narratives summarize the results of the climate adaptation scenarios in a way that is described in an understandable way for various actors and knowledge carriers of the system and thus represent the basis for sustainable and long-term policy planning.
WP 5 - Project management
AP 5.1
AP 5.2
AP 5.3
Reports on the project meetings
Semi-annual reports to engage stakeholders
Annual reports on the exploitation of the project results
Lead:
Contribution:
UHH
CAU, GEOMAR, iDiv, TI-OF
Work package 5 (WP 5) aims to organize and coordinate the project in terms of time and content. Project plans and progress are discussed at regular project meetings and the project results are used in a targeted manner. The focus is on integrative collaboration between the work packages and networking with stakeholders both inside and outside the project. The project management is supported by an Internal Steering Board (ISB), which consists of the heads of the sub-projects as well as a project scientist and an interest representative. In addition, selected stakeholders, including representatives from fisheries and nature conservation are invited to regular workshops. The aim is to present the project results in a comprehensible way for all actors, to discuss them in detail and then to formulate solutions together. Furthermore, public platforms such as this website as well as profiles on ResearchGate and Twitter are used to present the scientific results of the project to a broad and diverse audience. The focus, however, is on transferring the scientific results of balt_ADAPT into recommendations for fisheries management and local policy planning (e.g. through policy briefs).